"Miscellaneous" Page

This page will allow you to calculate some probabilities by yourself – and not only the poker probabilities! 

The first part of the page will allow you to make different calculations based on the binomial distribution law. This law describes a situation where we have a number of random events (trials) in which a number of occurrences that interest us (successes) have happened. We know the theoretical probability of success and wish to know whether our practical results are likely for realization or not. By default (you can see it on the picture) you can see the roulette example. You made 100 spins (number or trials = 100), and your number didn’t hit even ones (number of successes = 0). We know that the probability to get a certain number is 2,7% (success probability = 0,027). Enter data and press “Calculate” button to see the probability of such situation on a familiar scale. The average expected number of successes is 3, but our zero number still has 6,5% probability which isn’t that low.

The second part of the page will let you analyze your financial results. Computations here are made according to the normal distribution law. Poker Tracker will provide you with all necessary figures for calculations. You can get the number of games on the page “General Info”, “Total Hands” column, win rate – on the same page, column “BB/100 Hands”. To know the deviation press the button “More detail…” on page “Session Notes” and see the line “Standard Deviaiton/100 Hands”. You can see a made-up example on the picture – just press “Calculate” button to see the evaluation of the results. Please notice that the results are shown on the well-known colored strip, but are interpreted in a different manner. You can see the appraisal of:

  • Possible financial results range (possible loss/win in big bets),
  • Possible win rate range (in big bets to 100 hands), as your real win rate can differ from the one shown in the Tracker and the less hands played the bigger mistake is possible,
  • Possible deviation range (this parameter shows how big swings in the game you can get), where the accuracy of the evaluation again depends on the number of hands played,
  • The biggest possible losing/winnings streak, which allows assessing the required bankroll.

How should we “read” the results here? In the middle in green you still can see the average, expected value. At the first three pictures it will correspond with the numbers entered by player. To the left from the center you can see the negative deviation and to the right – the positive deviation. Above the former “10%” marks you can see yellow numbers – that’s expected results with error level below 10%. For example, with 90% probability the possible results will be in -48 to 448 big bets range (numbers are given for default example you can see on the picture). Above former “1%” marks you can see the red numbers – that’s expected results with error level below 1%. For example, with 99% probability the possible results will be in -186 to 586 big bets range. The same with other parameters – 90%probability ranges are shown in yellow, 99% ranges – in red.

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